If there is anything
I've learned regarding politics, it's to expect the unexpected. Actually that's not just politics but in life
in general. Obviously the unexpected
doesn't happen all the time - then it wouldn't be unexpected. But think about seminal events in recent
history - or just your own personal history.
At the moment that said event was occurring, often we find ourselves
saying, "If you would have told me 3 months ago that X - I wouldn't have
believed you. " If you would have
told me that a Freshman Senator named Barack Obama (rhymes with Osama) would be
our first black President elected in 2008, in 2004 - I would have laughed in
your face. But by that time the events
had been set in motion. Grant it, a lot
still had to happen for the pieces to fall into place but the big ones, the
structural ones, were already set (namely Clinton scaring other serious contenders away except for Edwards, Obama being extremely capable at organizing and building an organization around him, a core of Democratic support - possibly the most engaged 10-20% that would not settle, Bush winning re-election forcing him to account for his shitty tenure- had Kerry won he would have gotten blamed and would have lost bad in 2008, probably) .
This sort of
realization of how events unfold led me to predict, WRONGLY, that we would see
marijuana legalization in four years (right after Obama was elected). But you can see how it could have happened -
Obama is elected and leaves states to their own devices, Schwarzenegger had
publicly stated he was in favor of it as a tax generating project, a sagging economy and growing deficit, Ron Paul had
bolstered the libertarian republicans about freedom in general, public opinion
was moving in the right direction and as of right now support for medical
marijuana is above 50%), the media was increasingly addressing the issue as a
serious topic to discuss as opposed to a joke or as some way to deride
"stoners"- this is important as key mover of public opinion. Despite all this,
and that for some inexplicable reason, Obama has gone back on his "leave
it to the states policy"- legalization has not happened (although that was probably 50-50 bet anyway). Hey, you win some, you lose some. A few pockets of the country have legalized
but unlike gay marriage, a wave of change has not followed it yet.
My point is, is that
despite Romney being the clear front runner early (Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean
anyone) and still by delegate count - you never saw him catch fire.
Obama actually faced this as well being the insurgent 4 years ago, but
eventually Edwards attacked Hillary causing her to sling mud, making her look
dirty. Obama talked about hope and change. And he snuck Iowa out of his back
pocket (unbeknownst to us at the time he actually had an advantage over Clinton
because of his superior ground game) lending him some immediate
legitimacy. The difference between
Romney and Obama though, is that Romney is/was a known quantity. Obama was not. And despite being the conservative's
conservative 4 years ago, nobody trusts him now. The base is LOOKING for a reason to not vote
for this guy.
I don't know about
historical precedents in this sort of situation - but the republicans have a
nominating process where , depending on MI, AZ, and Super Tuesday, any one of
the possible nominees, won't be able to secure the nomination (w/o super
delegates). Brokered convention? Establishment pick that won't piss off the
base? Christie, Palin, Jindal…. This much is certain, someone must be
nominated. But the establishment,
despite the weak economy, already didn't think they could beat Obama (evidenced
by the weak field) and now the economy may be improving. LITERALLY anything is possible, Paul,
Santorum, CHENEY, even Pawlenty (who should be kicking himself). Whatever happens, I won't be surprised.
Romney as nominee -
50/50
