Given the tumult in the Republican primary race, it seemed remiss not to take a closer look both at the surging Rick Santorum and at the race as a whole.
First off, a mea culpa. Last summer I attended a dinner, and found myself at a table with a self-important, egotistical, and downright demeaning investment professional. Needless to say we agreed on little. At one point in the evening, this individual explained that Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee, and would then defeat the socialist incumbent in the fall. I replied by questioning Romney's acceptability to the party base, and suggested that a movement Conservative had a better than even chance of upsetting the forthcoming coronation.
Fast forward six months, and, while I certainly wasn't willing to call the November election, I was fairly confident that Romney had the nomination in hand. All the signs were moving in his favor, and his opponents were self-destructing one by one. So, I made a mistake, and shouldn't have discarded my original opinion quite so quickly. Now, an addendum is in order. I never, be it this past June or three weeks ago, never believed that Rick Santorum had so much as in iota of a chance. Truthfully, I might not even have been aware that he was running last summer.
I still believe that Romney is the most likely nominee, however, all the same, I can't help but wonder if that belief is simply a regurgitation of popular opinion. Santorum is surging and, while such surges have come and gone in the past (see Cain, Herman, Gingrich, Newt, Ginrich, Newt Again, Perry, Rick), and while Michigan is noticeably tightening, we're but a week out from the Arizona and Michigan primaries. If Romney doesn't hold Michigan, then a compelling narrative is established for Super Tuesday a mere week later. I've seen not a word printed on the forthcoming Washington caucus, so can't judge how, or if, that might impact the race.
I'm curious as to what others think of this state of affairs. Can Santorum sustain his surge? Will the all-important South swing to him in force, and would such a swing presage a tsunami...or a contested convention?
On a related topic, I'd like to hear some thoughts on the possible underlying causes of this electoral shift, be it temporary or lasting. My gut tells me that we're looking at a combination of Santorum being the last not-Romney standing, combined with the unusual characteristics of the voting population.
As Timothy Egan of the NYT points out, the primaries (and, though he doesn't explicitly make the distinction, the caucuses especially) haven't exactly inspired the country; turnout has ranged from abysmal to, in Maine, a level so low as to be a statistical rounding error. The turnout has also accenuated the historical problem of primaries being decided by the most fervent, ideologically strident voters, given that they're the ones who get out to vote, creating a Republican electorate this season that is "old, white, (and) uniformly Christiam".
This voting bloc provides one possible explanation for the positions taken by the field; they're not appealing to the nation; they're not even appealing to their party. They're attempting to appeal to their party's crazies or, as they're known on both the left and right the "activists".
So, what's causing this? And, in a related vein, could Santorum actually stand a chance in the general? The easy answer is "no, of course not". The man is a walking stereotype of all of the smug and sanctimonious pricks who know that they are right and that you are not only wrong, but, because you disagree with them, are fundametally evil. His positions on the issues of the day (both this day and those issues issues whose last day of note was in 1912 rather than 2012) are so extreme or bizarre that I have trouble conceiving of a Republican path to anything approaching victory. And yet...party identification has taken an increasing hold over the electorate of both sides. I have to wonder how close the race could actually become.
