Friday, January 23, 2009

The Philosophy of Energy Policy

Since the Q and I found some agreement on our conversation from Tuesday, I figured I'd summarize hear so we were all on the same page.

WITHOUT GIVING ANY CONSIDERATION to REAL WORLD CONSTRAINTS... if the goal is to expand energy consumption limitlessy, then logically you would want to dedicate ALL EFFORTS to finding/developing a limitless energy source.  

Let's assume perfect information.  With 100% effort, there won't be a substantial breakthrough in harvesting unlimited energy for 20 years.  But at that 100% effort, our energy needs will be such that we will only have enough fuel for 10 years.  But we are 2 years away from a breakthrough that will quadruple energy efficiency, but obviously we would have to reduce that 100% effort to 50%, with the other 50% being dedicated to the breakthrough.  This scenario is both supports and refutes the above claim.  The only way to get to the unlimited resource is to NOT dedicate all efforts to the unlimited source and dedicate some (at least for a period of time) to the limited source.  But because the reason your dedicating time to the limited source is that it ULTIMATELY goes towards development of the unlimited source, that can be categorzied as effort to develop the unlimited source.

But perhaps a more accurate phrasing would be:  Without consideration to real word constrainsts... if the goal is to expand energy consumption limitlessy, then you would want to develop a limitless energy source.  

I removed the "dedicate all efforts" part because the statement itself may be logically inconsistent.  Dedicating effort is a statement about allocating resources, namely effort itself.  The only reason we care about allocating resources is because they are constrained and limited.  So it would be impossible to postulate how one would allocate resources without real world constraint.